The Internet Ten Years From Now
During the 1440's, in Strasbourg, Germany, an enterprise was underway that changed the world profoundly. Johannes Gutenberg had modernized the printing press- an invention that made the circulation of ideas easier, faster, and more efficient. The world hasn't been the same since. My generation may be witnessing the next step. The internet has gone from dial-up to wireless, from desktop to phone and beyond. It has already changed the way people live and interact, and is still growing in terms of how many people use it, how much information is sent and received on it, and what it can do. So how different will the internet, and consequently the world, be in just a decade?
The internet has been mobilizing, and that will continue. From the desk to the cellphone, and from dial-up to wireless, the internet's growth has accelerated the exchange of information to a matter of seconds, across the vast distances. This acceleration hasn't met its full potential yet. For example, today, while news, entertainment, and communication are increasingly sought via the internet, there are still university students in America buying textbooks in physical form, and toting them around everyday. In ten years, these students will be an anomaly.
The internet's capacity to save physical space and resources should align perfectly with the growing need for sustainability, a shift in commercial focus toward local markets, and environmental causes in general. Habitats will be saved as the demand for paper, among other things, decreases. The expansion of wireless and satellite networks may save land once used for storage and physical infrastructure such as land-lines and warehouses. The number of websites is staggering already, though, so a more organized form of local prioritization will likely crop up, with each region maintaining its own version, or lagoon, of the net to both make it easier for local consumers as well as being more efficient, manageable, and profitable for that region- much like an area code.
Exceptional growth and change, and the necessary regulation that comes with it, are almost inevitable over the next ten years. The internet will help restore the environment, local economies, the global economy, all while being carried in our pockets. People, information, products, and media will be just finger-swipes away, all the time. The exchange of information may even move beyond Earth and expand to the moon and Mars(as NASA is already beginning to do), perhaps providing a better understanding of life and the universe as we know it. Most importantly, the accelerated circulation of ideas that has been integral to the progress of society will perhaps spur a renaissance of invention, innovation, and social interaction. Much like the Gutenberg's printing press, the motor for this rebirth that may revolutionize the world, is the internet, and the time, now.
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Nice Blog
In a small way I was one of the early pioneers of the Internet. I opened the third dial-up ISP business in Wyoming in 1993. At that time the WWW was in its infancy. There was practically no commerce. There were only a few thousand web pages and they were mainly the fanciful creations of college students. Yahoo was the hot search engine and they were still maintaining their lists of web pages manually. When I sold out at near the top of the dot.com boom in 2000, we (I had merged with some of my competitors) were the largest ISP in Wyoming and rapidly expanding into Montana and South Dakota. By then commerce companies like Amazon, Ebay and PayPal were firmly established along with tens of thousands of other online businesses. But Facebook had not yet been invented. The rate of change was astounding!
I'm not sure that your blog was responsive to the title of the blog. You discussed the good aspects of the Internet quite a lot but barely mentioned the bad. While I agree with you that the Internet is overwhelmingly a force for good, it does have a dark nasty underbelly. A huge percentage of web traffic is pornography. It is also the home of a whole new breed of scammers, abusers and various sorts of predators. It has also allowed for the rapid spread of quite a lot of malicious code. It allows terrorists to more easily organize. I could go on and on. But it is mostly good.
The Internet has changed the face of the world more in the past two decades then happened in the previous 90 years of the 20'th Century. And that was saying a lot because the 20'th Century saw a lot of change with automobiles, airplanes, the electrical and utility grids, modern medicine, modern weapons and modern warfare and computers to name just a little. The Internet has completely re-organized society and it is just getting started.
'Tis true, I neglected to go
'Tis true, I neglected to go into the negative side of the internet's expansion. What I meant in the title was more along the lines of "for better or worse," not meaning to examine both sides, but where is it going, regardless of whether its considered bad or good. You are totally right, there is a HUGE negative side to this, pornography being a great example of that. I don't even want to think about the affect of high-speed porn on society, men in particular. My neglect of that aspect of the internet is willful ignorance, at this point...
I can't agree with most of
I can't agree with most of what is being said here.. because your leaving out the labor workers in this field. I personally have Friends and Family that aren't into the technology of today and DON'T need to be. My father does construction and everything from maps, to diagrams, and so on.. are all still on paper.. Law offices still need SIGNATURE constant. While digital is an amazing thing.. its still flawed in so many ways that will never be improved or fixed. Cause of factors like hackers, and pirates these problems are more human then they are Error and Corrections. Plus your leaving out the natural factors of just personality. Some people prefer books to tablets.. (I being one).. but while the tablets are nice and all.. it takes away so much from the actual feel of reading a book by the fire. Plus age can be considered a big factor here.. Most older people (45-70) can't read tablets because of eye problems..which are a natural thing.. ESPECIALLY around computer work. I could probably go on but really I think your seeing my point.
While yes we will evolve this technology its still not and probably never will be the center of EVERYONE's lives just the few select who are ..probably like you and I .. Hell people still need the Newspaper..and that will likely never change much like the use of libraries.. its a social thing not a thing against technology.
It is what it is...
Tablets actually allow a lot
Tablets actually allow a lot of older people to be able to read without waiting for specialty books, because you can easily enlarge the font without having to buy the same book more than once.
Most
I don't disagree that vast segments of our economy are outside the internet. You cannot build a house or manufacturer a car, or plumb a toilet or grow a bushel of corn, or mine coal or drill for oil with the Internet. A lot of people who work in these industries can get by without using the Internet.
But that does not mean that the Internet does not affect these industries and mainly for the positive.
Lets start with your examples:
Most maps and blue prints begin in digital format and are frequently transmitted through the Internet. Automated CAD programs have made drafting far cheaper then the old days of hand mechanical drawing. And transmitting electronic copies is much cheaper and faster then printing and mailing paper copies. Yes, printed content is still useful particularly in the field where a construction person may not have ready access to a computer.
As Venus noted above, electronic books are a boon for the elderly. My Father who is a voracious reader is at 81 suffering from macular degeneration. He has gone almost entirely to a Kindle for reading. It works for his magazine and newspaper subscriptions too and because travels a fair amount, his Newspapers are delivered to wherever he and his Kindle happen to be. And electronic content is considerably cheaper than paper content.
Digital signatures are in many cases binding. Generally all that is required is a clause in the document that says they are acceptable. Yes, some documents are so important and require original signatures but for more mundane matters, the Internet has made things like divorces, real estate transactions (except generally mortgage documents) much easier to transact and complete. And even the documents which require signatures can be transmitted one direction via the Internet and then signed and returned by postal mail. This greatly reduces time and expense. I'm 53 and about 3 years ago for the first time required eyeglasses for reading. I find that even my 4" smartphone makes a satisfactory platform for web browsing, email, and Kindle Books. I'd rather have something bigger but bigger does not fit in my pocket and is often not with me when I find a few minutes to kill or need to look something up. I frequently check out digital books (audio and Kindle) from my local library and I only occassionally go into the bricks and mortar building anymore. They have some content that is most appropriate on hardcopy so I agree that it will and should continue to exist, but the Internet has made it MUCH better.
Human beings started farming, building homes, mining, manufacturing and recording things in written form thousands of years ago and we are still doing them today and will probably still be doing them thousands of years from now. Those activities were physical activities then and it hard to image that they won't be in the future too. But the digital age has changed things a great deal and it will change things even more in the future. The technology is becoming pervasive and even people who claim to be outside of it seldom are. They use ATMs for banking and credit cards for purchases, and increasingly voice phone service is provided over the Internet and the list goes on.
I wasn't trying to say that
I wasn't trying to say that at some point our entire lives would exist in the virtual world. And I certainly admit that there is a group of people who don't directly desire the internet in their lives. But regardless of that, they have access to some degree, and they likely use it to some degree. ATMs are a good example of that.
It tends to be older people who don't embrace the internet in comparison to their young counterparts. Those members of that older generation have a decreasing influence on the internet's growth, though.
I worked construction for four years, and emails were definitely a part of that.
And in terms of the socioeconomic affect, business and interaction will probably take advantage of the benefits that internet gives us. That's why Facebook is so big. Even my grandparents have a facebook now. That says a lot.