The McCain campaign recently decided to stop their efforts to woo voters in Michigan, which many Democrats have used as evidence to claim that McCain is falling fast. Yet with McCain's vice presidential nominee griping about the decision, pleading in an e-mail "Oh, come on. You know, do we have to? Do we have to call it there?" it seems that there is a certain level of hesitation which makes me doubt the honesty of their pullout.
Sarah Palin is pretty openly against the decision to abandon Michigan, as she stated in a Fox News interview this week. I'm not sure what I would do if I were in Campaign Manager Rick Davis's shoes, pulling out seems statistically smart with the RCP average poll in Michigan showing a 7 point lead by Obama; but Michigan is likened to Ohio as one of those working class states where losing there signifies a greater loss with the core of the American middle class. It may not decide the election, but Michigan is a key state to lose and I think that with more effort there McCain could have at least pulled close, if not led in that state. I'm hesitant to suggest this, for fear of sounding like a pseudo conspiracy theorist but is it possible that the McCain campaign is deploying another surprising political move in Michigan, like the suspending of his campaign?
Before you all blow this off as ridiculous, I'd like to state some of the support for this idea. McCain is losing in every national poll that I've seen which isn't in itself condemning but it isn't a strong indicator about a month from the big day. As I was talking with the security guard at my dorm (real cool and real smart) McCain needs to do something that will shake things up. As a self-proclaimed Maverick, this will fit into his personality, like when he rallied the party over his shocking pick of Sarah Palin. In this way, McCain thrives on choices that change the game so in a small way pulling out of Michigan could be another political strategy, this time to win over the reluctant working class families. In theory, surrendering at Michigan will be a wake up call to Republican voters and those undecideds to rally and make their state look winnable again to McCain. Then, McCain returns to much glory saying something like "I'm back in Michigan because the people here want me!" it's not too inconceivable is it? I don't see a domino effect in this strategy where all the working class voters are moved by the devotion voters in Michigan have shown and decide to follow suit, but who knows?
Now, what would be a more likely scenario is that McCain continues with his ignoring Michigan and voters see him as a weak leader that won't fight for them and strongly turn to Obama. But as the decision to suspend his campaign over the financial crisis demonstrates, McCain's advisers don't have a lot of foresight when it counts. Like that move, the Michigan move will more than likely guarantee an Obama win there and give the Democrats some ammo by asserting that McCain has given up on the working class. I'm interested to see how this one plays out, somehow I doubt that my McCain plan will come to fruition but wouldn't it be more interesting than McCain just going negative for 4 weeks? I think so.
Note: If you doubt the Michigan Republicans' anger/confusion toward the decision to leave their state here's a quote from Politico: “We’re blindsided, along with everybody else in Michigan,” said Oakland County Executive L. Brooks Patterson. “I feel like I woke up this morning, and there was a note on my pillow.”
