Democrats in Congress have been rallying behind proposed legislation to set a date on troop withdrawal from Iraq within the next year. That sounds like a a good plan, to establish a timetable for the war. Right? I'd say no.
The cause of the War in Iraq isn't as simple as people would like to make it out to be. It isnt just about oil, or WMD's (there are plenty of other countries known definitively to have Nukes) or revenge or conflicting ideologies and beliefs. Its a multudinal issue; there are many causes and it definitely is not black and white. With such a complex war being fought it is a false assumption that such a war can have a definitive simple end. Troop withdrawal won't end the War in Iraq it will merely intensify the fighting. The moment the United States makes any move to lessen its troop involvement and patrols the insurgents will rally together and the suicide bombings and terrorist attacks will skyrocket. Anyone who feels the desire to seize control of Iraq will attempt to grapple power out of the hands of the democratic government the US installed.
Think of the city of Falluja. During the past few years Falluja has been one of the bloodiest cities in Iraq. And when the United States Marines finally gained control of that city and were sent to areas in need of greater troop strength and the US Army took control of the city the attacks erupted and chaos once again ripped through the city. Then the Marines had to be called in once again to restore order. As soon as any sizeable amount of troops are moved away from any part of Iraq that region will be back to square one.
But how about this hypothetical troop withdrawal going through and we do remove a large part of our troop strength. If the US does withdraw troops and all the violence and attacks continue who do you think is going to get the blame for the instability and attacks? The terrorists? Fat chance. Its going to be the Good Ol' US of A. And that will be the greatest recruiting tool the terrorists could ask for. After all the attacks and violence the Iraqi people are going to want revenge and they are going to join terrorist groups and insurgencies in greater numbers than ever before. And then its going to be worse than before, an entire country will hate America and they will do anything to strike back.
This is the thing about democracy in the Middle East. It doesnt work. They are too culturally different. They are used to carrying around automatic weapons from the time they were ten years old. They are used to violence. Their different religious groups dont have any amount of tolerance for one another. The minute different religious sects get together their are violent conflicts. Why do you think there have been Totalitarian Governments in control for so long that rely on scare tactics and violence to rule? Its because that is what keeps the religious sects at bay and in line. Its the fact that the Iraqi people have been conditioned this way and many dont know how to react to the ability to have freedom they see it as an opportunity to make a power grab.
The US is in a Catch-22. If the US stays in Iraq it will continue to accumulate casualties everyday it occupies Iraq. And if the US leaves Iraq it will become a breeding ground for terror and will result in a civil war the US will be blamed for.
This is why a troop withdrawal wont work now or a year from now or perhaps even 5 years from now. A troop withdrawal is only going to lead to the largest civil war Iraq has seen in years. And we will be the ones the Iraqis people will blame. Remember before the US was in Iraq there was stability, not freedom but a certain amount of predictablity. Who is to say that a free life of instability and terror with the possibility of being killed is better than a stable but oppressed life of terror with the possibility of being killed?
How should we solve this then? That is the $400 Billion question isnt it.
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