Potential War with North Korea: Good Or Bad for the United States

Over the past several weeks there has been an increased level of both condemnation and saber rattling between the United States and its ally, South Korea, and the People Republic of Korea (i.e. North Korea). With the release of reports that North Korea was in the final stages of preping for a launch of what it said to be a "satellite for national aeronautic and space advancement," the White House as well as now Secretary of State Hillary Clinton released statements of strong condemnation and warned that any provocation (for which the US believes is a missle test disguised as a satellite launch) would result in not only sanctions brought about by both the United States and its International partners, and potential military conflict if need be. With this story developing by the minute and more saber rattling occuring as we get closer to the possible launch date (projected to be in late-March or early-April), it is clear to me that there is a possiblity, although small, that this disguised launch could escalate into all-out war between North Korea and South Korea that could ulitmately bring the United States into the battle on the South Korean side (sounds like another Korean War to me!!).
With the possiblity of war with North Korea even closer to evident (the politcal enviroment on the Korean Pennsula is bad, there have been several provacative messures taken by both the North and the South and it is professed by some that if this launch is anything but space related retaliatory messures will be taken), I believe we must analyze both the benefits and disincentives of a potentially long military engagement on the Korean pennisula.
Overall, politically the United States would not benefit politcally from a long-engagement on the Korean peninsula. In the realm of domestic politics, the leading politcal party in this case the Democrats would be hard pressed at first to engage in military manuveurs with South Korea. The public would be even more hard pressed to see a justification for any form of prolonged military engagement with North Korea, and would not easily swallow the idea of military action based on the sole premise that North Korea lied and tested a missile instead on launched a satellite. I am sure politcal manuveurs would be made so that there was a greater justification for a prolonged-engagement such as possible threats of nuclear bombings or a threat to ally, Japan or even a destablilazation of the entire Asiatic region. One of the main questions remaining at this point is how would we initiate operations? I personally believe that President Barack Obama would take the lead of former President George Bush Jr. and declare, as commander -in -chief, an operation to engage the North Koreans as an ally of South Korea, which is somewhat within his constitution rights and has precedence. One way or another military operations will commence! Internationally speaking US military involvement would be a very hard sell, with both Russia and China favoring North Korea. Potentially you could even have a broadening war which involves Russia, China, North Korea vs. the United States, South Korea, and potentially Europe. With this idea, brings about an intense surge of destablization throughout the world, and potentially World War III.
Economically, I think their are both some incentives and major disincentives in regards to a potential prolonged engagement with the Communist North Koreans. First, it would be good in that a revival of the "war economy" would be necessary to sustain troop levels in a digressive region against the third largest military in the world. Unemployment would fall with the necessity of the reinstatement of the draft. At first capital losses would be staggering and would require quick innovative, short run production of less technologically advances equipment and war supplies ( although this might seem impossble, I believe the United States would come to realize that spending $30 billion on a tank that could last a week in a dangerous military enviroment could be unneccesary and impractical especially if both the Russins and Chinese were engaged in the conflict). Overall production across the nation would increase to levels rivaling World War II, thus stimulating the economy, however also raising the government deficit to unhealthy levels. The major disencentive to a potential war with Noth Korea is its trade impacts for both the world and the United States. Overall, trade would plummet with shippments from Asiatic countries limited due to supply interruptions. However, I believe the largest disencentive would effect both sides negatively (assuming at this point China were involved), trade between thew United States and China would plummet and both economies would be effected as well as numerous trading partners with both countries.
This is all I have for you at this time, look for some continuations as the situation develops. Some of these points might be alittle underdeveloped but expansion would require significant foresight and projection calculations. I however do want to leave with a question: Does anyone see any additional problems with a potential war on the Korean pennisula, and if so how would those problems effect the United States?

cosmic's picture

Anything that has to do with rogue states testing nukes is probably justification enough for declaring war (watch out for Iran v. Israel in the future). But war is definately not a good thing, and I don't think it will happen. At this point in time, it would certainly require a draft- NK reportedly fields a million-man army.

NK's test launch is almost surely a missile (as spies have been indicating) but the US will probably let it happen- just like it let the last (embarrassingly flawed) missile test, and the last (surprisingly weak) underground nuclear test. NK is ratcheting up its rhetoric because it is testing the waters- they want to see what kind of leader our new president is.

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