Gallup Polls and the Washington Redskins

In the midst of a presidential election season, it is hard to turn on the news without being shown some sort of poll, who is ahead in the race nationally, state by state, who leads among citizens 65 and older, ect. ect. We often look at these polls not knowing that over 70 years of refining and innovation has gone into something as simple as two percentage values, that an entire industry has grown around the process of predicting the outcomes of elections and measuring public sentiment. On the other hand, there are the less well known and far less formal polls known as folk polls. These polls are primarily for entertainment, one for example says the the taller candidate will win in a presidential election, which of course just isn't true-but one folk poll seems to be different. The most accurate folk poll of all time states that if the Washington Redskins win their last game before the election, the incumbent candidate will win, if they lose or tie, the incumbent will lose. So far it has been accurate in 18 out of 18 of the last elections in which an incumbent has run, a 72 year perfect streak. The odds of this happening are a staggering 1 in 260 million.

The highly sophisticated polling corporations that we trust so much to tell us the political climate of the nation, that every year influence media coverage and fund raising for thousands of aspirants for political office, cannot claim that they have been right 100% of the time, but the Redskins can. My opinion of polling was low before I had heard about this, and while it really proves very little, I think it should encourage everyone to take polls with a grain of salt. After all, it's like the football team beating the math club at its own game.