Democrat Francine Busby will face Republican lobbyist Brian Bilbray in the June 6th special election to replace former Congressman and current convict Duke Cunningham in California's 50th Congressional District. Cunningham resigned after he was indicted for acceptung $2.4 million in bribes from lobbyists and underreporting his 2004 income to the IRS. Cunningham has since pleaded guilty to federal charges of conspiracy to commit bribery, mail fraud, wire fraud, and tax evasion and is currently serving his eight year and four month sentence.
CA-50 is known as a Republican district--Cunningham carried it in 2004 with 58% of the vote. However, polls show a dead heat as Democrats are hoping to set the stage for a 2006 revolution to take back Congress. According to the latest Survey USA poll--and the last poll before the election--has Brian Bilbray with a two point lead over Francine Busby, 47% to 45%--well within the 4.7% margin of error.
The most interesting finding from the poll is that the race will be decided on voter turnout:
Bilbray leads by 14 points among voters age 65 plus; Busby leads by 20 points among voters younger than 35. The two candidates are effectively tied among voters 35 to 64. Should younger voters, historically unreliable, vote in unexpectedly large numbers: advantage Busby. Should older voters vote in disproportionately large numbers: advantage Bilbray.
So if you have any young friends in CA-50, call then up and remind them to vote.
