So, the hours are counting down to the day that will hopefully, if not most likely, decide the future of the 2008 election. On the Republican side, John McCain will hope to strengthen his lead and secure the GOP nomination. For the Democrats, this is Barack Obama's chance to gain a solid lead on Hillary Clinton, forcing her out of the race.
But nothing is for sure.
What surprises me the most is Mick Huckabee. Believe it or not, people not only follow his vision, but still believe he has a shot. Now I've been through the numbers, as have many political analysts, and it's pretty obvious that baring a miracle where the entire country decides to turn up and vote Chuck Norris' man, there is no way he is going to win. But the hopeless case has been around before. Ross Perot? Ralph Nader? Both of these political piranha's have hurt their parties by pushing too much, though both did it after the primaries were over by pulling away votes from their respective parties. Would Mr. Huckabee do the same? It seems unlikely to me, I think that he instead wants to gain as much support as he can while staying in the shadows. Maybe he wants a run for VP. But who doesn't? The Republican party has a strong candidate with Mr. McCain, and even if they lose, the experience from a run for VP could be beneficial during a 2012 campaign. I'm not convinced on anyone for his selection yet; after all, President Bush opted for someone that wasn't even on the Republican ticket. It might be a surprise.
The Democrats seem to be more entertaining. If anyone reads this, I beg you to look at the candidate polling for both Ohio and Texas. Mr. Obama has a lead in the Lone Star State, but what is more surprising is his steady gain in popularity in Ohio. Could he pull off the win? It's possible. I'll admit that I am an Obamite myself and hope him the best, but in all honesty it does look like a parade to the grave for Mrs. Clinton (knock on wood). You can see it in her campaigning lately. Some call it scare tactics, some call it being a "bitch", but anyway you look at it, she is no loner the confident front runner she was last November.
So here are my numbers and official guesses:
In Texas: Obama 50% vs. Clinton 47%
Texas has a complicated voting system that will probably benefit Obama more than the polls show, but I like to stay on the side of caution.
In Ohio: Clinton 53% vs. Obama 45%
Her ties in Ohio are undeniable, but Obama has been pulling in.
Pennsylvania: Clinton 50% vs. Obama 47%
Pennsylvania is really close to Ohio, so Clinton's popularity will spill over. But also notable is the large (up to 20% by some polls) number of undecided voters.
What this means is that Hillary Clinton will gain lead, but not enough to help her win. The Super Delegates should see Obama's continuing growth in popularity and go to his side (as they have since Super Tuesday). She won't drop out just yet, but with a dwindling number of Pledged Delegates assigned to Primaries and Caucuses left, she will have to resort to calling up favors owed to her husband even more enthusiastically.
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