19 February 2008
Quite simply put: I don’t think John McCain has any chance of winning the presidential election. More and more things keep adding nails into McCain’s coffin.
NAIL #1: McCain has publicly made one of the most detrimental comments to his campaign. He will not pull the troops out of Iraq. As much as people like the idea of being tough on terrorism, they want out of Iraq. Iraq is turning into a Vietnam—impossible to win but the US can’t turn back without people looking down on them.
NAIL #2: President George W. Bush endorsed McCain and called him a true conservative. President Bush has the lowest approval rating of any president (and it is fresh in people’s minds). You don’t want him endorsing you when people hate and do not trust him, especially swing voters.
NAIL #3: Not only were there once rumors of McCain considering switching parties, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry (D) claims that McCain’s people approached him about putting McCain on the ticket as Vice President. This claim can be found at:
http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/4/3/11936/97033
NAIL #4: McCain’s stance as a conservative is often questioned, and instead of not bringing it up, Bush decided that people needed reassurance that McCain is a conservative. This brings up the questions for independent voters: Was it necessary to state that McCain was a conservative? And does that mean people doubt that he is?
NAIL #5: To go along with bringing the question up in people’s minds, McCain also worked on a bill with Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy (D) called the Secure America and Orderly Immigration Act. Although there were some parts that the majority of Republicans would agree with (i.e. and English test), it would allow the over 10 million illegal immigrants to stay in the United States. Although this is the only bill that sticks out in my mind, I am sure there are more in McCain’s past.
NAIL #6: McCain does not fall into the pro gun category that is a major part of the conservative ideal. Gun Owner’s of America has not rates McCain about a C-- in the four years that they have done their ratings. Their site has a complete list of not only their ratings but also bills that McCain has voted for. You can visit their site:
http://www.gunowners.org/mccaintb.htm
McCain keeps having nails pounded into his coffin that will stop people from voting for him. If these facts become well known, I do NOT think McCain has a chance of winning.
I agree with you, but in McCain's defense, these aren't all his fault. For example, McCain was one of the most outspoken conservative opponents of Bush throughout his administration; in fact, he ran against Bush in 2000. So Bush can endorse who he wants, but McCain never supported him.
I agree it is true that he ran against Bush and has been an opponent to him during last 8 years. At the same time the fact that John Kerry stepped forward saying McCain wanted to be his vice president four years makes everything seem a little bit questionable about hsi true feelings or if it is a plot by the democrats to keep McCain out of the race as a serious contender.
~Jessica Mondillo
http://www.progressiveu.org/blog/jmondillo
Large parts of the Republican base won't vote for McCain because of McCain-Kennedy.
To win he needs to capture a big chunk of the political center. But he can't possibly win if he does not have the support of the base.
I don't think immigration is the killer nail. If anything that could help him gain people from more the democrat side and take some of their people. The sway of independents is the deciding factor usually. And I think the majority of the independents will not vote for McCain because he will NOT end the war (and Bush endorsed him).
~Jessica Mondillo
http://www.progressiveu.org/blog/jmondillo
Most independents were against the McCain Amnesty. Being against illegal immigration and wanting the law enforced is not exclusively a conservative thing. Only about 35% of the country calls themselves Republican and only about 20% calls themselves conservatives. About 65% of the country was against the McCain-Kennedy Amnesty so that issue is going to hurt him with a lot more than just conservatives and Republicans.
It would hurt him even more except that both Hillary and Obama are even weaker than McCain on the illegal immigration issue.
But can it be the definitive nail if the other two are weaker on the same policy? Maybe that will be a piece against McCain but I think supporting the war in Iraq is mroe of a turn off then immigration.
And as much as people did not like the McCain-Kennedy Amnesty policy, will they remember it come election time? I'm going to say no since many voter base a decision on endorsements and looks. Same thing with Kennedy. That's like saying Massachusetts won't reelect him because of that bill. In honesty I'd say (with 95% certainty) Kennedy will be a Mass Senator again as long as he runs.
~Jessica Mondillo
http://www.progressiveu.org/blog/jmondillo