The avian (bird) flu part 8: top UK science advisor says risk is "low" for human outbreak

Despite recent US reports that have been projecting worst case scenarios for the potential of a Bird Flu (H5N1) outbreak, a recent story published by BBC news in the UK reports that their chief science advisor feels that the risk of a human outbreak is low.  The story continues, "[King] added: 'We have got a virus in the bird population that has gone on since 1996, and in Asia particularly there has been a lot of contact between human beings and the birds that have got that virus.'  Despite that, a human virus has not developed, he said..."

Interestingly enough, there is still evidence that the British government has developed several contingency plans in the event that a human outbreak occurs.  Furthermore, the content of the article tacitly implies that the scientists that are quoted are only interested in the potential for an outbreak on British soil, noting that no other dead poultry has been found in the country besides the one dead bird, washed ashore, that tested positive for H5N1.

This is not, however, a clarion cry of freedom from the potential for a H5N1 crisis.  There is still economic devastation resulting from this particular strain of the bird flu in the countries that it has hit the hardest.  Furthermore, despite the fact that a human strain has not yet been found, there is still a possibility for mutation.  The US Department of Health and Human Services notes that the H5N1 strain has the established capacity to mutate rapidly.  It also notes that two established antiviral medicines, Tamiflu and Relenza, may be "useful treatments" in the event of a pandemic.

So, despite the passage of time, the recommended civilian response to the H5N1 strain is to report strange groups of dead birds or mammals to the health authorities, but there is absolutely no need for excessive fear or panic.